The hottest ups and downs. What about styrene at t

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Ups and downs what should styrene do at the end of the fourth quarter

ups and downs what should styrene do at the end of the fourth quarter

December 19, 2018

since December, the East China styrene market has experienced frequent ups and downs. Different from the previous period, the long-term unilateral downward market since the fourth quarter has finally ended. At the beginning of this month, the G20 and the United States reached an agreement to postpone the imposition of 25% tariffs, which boosted the global market, and the general rise of stock markets and bulk commodities. Styrene benefited from ending the long-term decline since October and rebounded rapidly. However, the peripheral bulk commodities and oil prices fell periodically, the styrene terminal inventory continued to rise, the market continued to improve, the lack of momentum, continued to rise blocked, so frequent fluctuations, how will styrene be interpreted

first of all, from the perspective of domestic Fundamentals: as we all know, the inventory of styrene terminal has been rising frequently. As of this Wednesday, there is still room for further increase when the short-term arrival at the port is still dense. However, more than 35000 sets of temperature measuring instruments have been verified. According to the ship reporting system and traders' feedback, the arrival pace will slow down in late December, meeting the same needs or reaching the same purpose, The situation of continuous rising inventory is expected to be improved to a certain extent. At the same time, the output of downstream enterprises of hard rubber and EPS increased in December compared with November, and there is still potential support for the demand for styrene

secondly, from the perspective of international supply flow: affected by anti-dumping, the global styrene supply flow has been readjusted and reorganized, with monthly import statistics and maximum torque display function; In terms of supply, the United States and South Korea have declined significantly, and the supply of the Middle East, Japan and Europe to China has increased to a certain extent

in addition, from the first quarter of next year, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea will have several sets of devices entering the centralized maintenance period, which will also drive some domestic first-hand merchants to bargain for the next month's US dollar shipments. In recent stages, the US dollar source of goods has been traded in batches, and the defining factors of the overall cost line also support the fluctuation range of the RMB market

again: from the perspective of market mentality: since October, the long-term weak and declining market once lost market confidence. Although the market failed to reverse the decline this month, the market did not continue the previous unilateral decline again. The ups and downs were repeated, and the futures market and spot gradually tended to level off. Undoubtedly, the reporter learned from the exhibition that merchants' views on the medium and long-term market were gradually improved. However, it is undeniable that there are still many factors affecting the uncertainty of the external macro level and international crude oil, and the interest in market speculation has declined. Especially on the basis of the temporary difficulty in releasing substantive good news on the supply and demand side, the periodic escape of profit taking will inevitably suppress the sustainability of the pursuit of buying

generally speaking, the short-term bad news on the periphery has been released periodically, and after the wide diving in the first two months and the frequent shocks this month, the bottom price of styrene has been gradually consolidated. Although the market with repeated ups and downs will continue, the overall shock range is expected to rise step by step, and whether it can make a further breakthrough depends on the cooperation of the good news on the periphery and other parties

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