The hottest upstream and downstream support PTA Ma

2022-08-16
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The spot price of PTA continues to rise after the Mid Autumn Festival. Since September, the spot price of PTA has increased by 300 yuan/ton to the current 7700 yuan/ton. However, the rise in market price has not stopped. The cost of upstream PX is strongly supported, the demand for downstream polyester market is increasing, and the National Day holiday is coming, which increases the enthusiasm of downstream buyers, Therefore, the market price of PTA will continue to rise sharply in the future

first, with the support of demand and macro-economy, the rise of PTA price is inevitable.

since August, the spot market of PTA has been steadily rising. At present, the internal price has risen to 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared with the same period last month, and an increase of 1000 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year. The sharp rise of PTA market price shows that the demand of downstream market is gradually rising and the promotion of macro-economy. According to the analysis of relevant departments, the consumption of PTA this year is estimated to be about 34.2 million tons, while the consumption in China is 21 million tons, of which 80% of PTA is used to produce polyester fiber, 15% is used to produce pet, and the rest is used to produce film and other plastics. According to this analysis, the growth rate of polyester fiber has a direct impact on the demand for PTA. In addition, in 2010/11, the global cotton inventory fell sharply and the supply decreased significantly, so the current cotton price reached the peak, which provided conditions for the expansion of the market demand share of the replaceable material polyester staple. Since this week, the market price of polyester short has also continued to rise, and the market demand for polyester short has only increased, which is a positive factor for the price rise of PTA

the low probability of RMB interest rate hike also promotes the rise of PTA price to a certain extent. From the following data, it can be seen that the consumption data in August increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 0.2% higher than last month, CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the circuit disturbance controlled by 2.8%. However, the main factor of CPI rise is still driven by agricultural products, so the possibility of interest rate hike in the near future will be reduced, thereby increasing liquidity, Therefore, the rise of PTA market price has also become an inevitable factor

second, the price of upstream raw materials is strong, supporting the market situation of PTA

the price of crude oil began to rise slightly under the influence of the decline of the US dollar index. As of September 24, the price of crude oil has increased by $2.83/barrel to 76.49 us dollars, so the material must be dried before forming, with a rise of 3.84%. Such a large increase has reached the largest increase since July. Although crude oil inventories are still at a high level, the rise in prices indicates that the downstream demand for crude oil is increasing. According to the relevant report released on September 23, the global daily demand for oil this year was 87.2 million barrels, an increase of 2.2 million barrels over last year's daily demand, and an increase of 400000 barrels over the expectation. From the perspective of price expectations, the average barrel of West Texas light crude oil in 2011 was US $82.50, 4% higher than the previous forecast of US $79.25 per barrel, while the average barrel of West Texas light crude oil this year was US $78.50, higher than the previous forecast of US $76.75 per barrel. Therefore, it is predicted that the world's daily oil demand in 2011 will be 88.9 million barrels, 1 million barrels higher than the predicted value of the International Energy Agency

the firmness of crude oil prices has supported the sharp rise of PX market, which has now reached a peak of more than $1000. As of September 24, the closing price of PX in Asia rose by $9/ton to $1025/ton in FOB South Korea and $1040/ton in CFR Taiwan compared with the previous day when cobalt industry also belongs to the upstream material end of the new energy industry chain; The closing price of PX in the United States increased slightly by $1/ton to $1025/ton fob in the United States Gulf compared with the previous day; The closing price in Europe rose sharply by $61/ton to $1064/ton in FOB Rotterdam. Then analyze its profit from the cost of PX. As of the 24th, the price difference between PX and MX has expanded to $125, and the gap with naphtha price has expanded to $357/ton, which has exceeded the profit point of $300. It shows that the current PX manufacturers have rich profits. Therefore, for example, the market price of the supporting electronic chemical PX in the information network field will be adjusted at the current high level, and the high cost adjustment will support the continuous increase of the market price of PTA

III. The production and sales of polyester market are booming, and the textile export is still high.

the polyester market and the textile industry performed well in September. As the raw material of polyester, PTA, its futures price will affect the production and sales of polyester and other products. However, due to the good demand for polyester products and reasonable and low inventory, the futures price cannot affect the price of polyester products, Therefore, the market price of polyester products has been at a high level. Recently, the pressure of power rationing policy has eased, and the operating rate of the factory is gradually recovering. Therefore, the market price of polyester products is also maintaining a slight upward trend. In terms of polyester, the current production and sales have been maintained at about 125%. The market price of polyester staple also maintained a rising trend under the influence of the sharp rise in cotton prices. The booming production and marketing of polyester products is a powerful condition for increasing the demand for PTA and raising the price of PTA

since this year, the export growth of textiles has been maintained at a high level of more than 20%. Even in July and August, the growth rate of textile exports was as high as 27% and 28%. The rapid growth of textile exports has increased the demand for PTA. According to customs statistics, the retail sales of domestic clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 24% in January. In terms of Shaoxing's textile exports, from January to August, Shaoxing's textile and clothing exports reached US $9.06 billion, an increase of 35.8% over the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 6.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 38.2%; The export of clothing and clothing accessories reached 2.36 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.3%

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