The hottest XCMG machinery expects an oversold reb

2022-10-01
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XCMG machinery: looking forward to the oversold rebound under the expectation of group integration

XCMG machinery: looking forward to the oversold rebound under the expectation of group integration

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the growth of truck crane business is good: driven by infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail, the truck crane industry increased by more than 20% year-on-year in 2009, and the company's year-on-year growth rate exceeded that of the industry in 2009, maintaining a market share of nearly 60%. Considering the construction cycle of infrastructure investment such as high-speed rail and the leading position of the company in the industry

the growth of truck crane business is good: driven by infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail, the truck crane industry increased by more than 20% year-on-year in 2009. The company's year-on-year growth rate in 2009 exceeded that of the industry, maintaining a market share of nearly 60%. Considering the construction cycle of infrastructure investment such as high-speed rail and the company's leading position in the industry, we expect the company's truck crane business to maintain an increase of more than 15% in 2010. With the downstream market of crane products gradually expanding from transportation infrastructure projects to petrochemical, electric power, mining, construction, port and other industries, the construction technology of domestic municipal engineering has been improved, and the trend of large-scale construction equipment is obvious. The company continues to optimize its product structure through additional issuance projects in order to adapt to the changes in downstream market demand, which will further consolidate the company's industry position and create new profit growth points

the research and development of core parts is expected to make a breakthrough: at present, domestic truck cranes and excavators, especially the hydraulic components supporting the main engine used for a long time under high temperature, and the new generation of gearboxes used in high-performance and large tonnage construction machinery products can only rely on imports. Through the fund-raising project, the company has entered the core components such as hydraulic components and transmission boxes. When the project reaches production capacity, it will add 250000 meters of hydraulic cylinders, 60000 hydraulic pumps (including motors), 0 million hydraulic valves, and 50000 various gearboxes and transmission boxes. According to the development law of the industry, if such core parts can make a breakthrough in research and development and form mass production capacity, it will greatly improve the overall profitability of the company and change the pattern of the global construction machinery industry

expand the business of concrete machinery: at present, the product type spectrum of the company's concrete machinery has achieved seriation and high-end development. After the completion of the concrete machinery industrialization base project, the production capacity of 1200 pump trucks, 600 Trailer pumps and 600 vehicle mounted pumps will be increased. In cooperation with XCMG heavy, it has established 10 pump truck representative offices across the country, developed several special dealers, and reserved spare parts in eight regional centers, Regular comprehensive inspection of all products in the market and other marketing and service measures will further enhance the competitiveness of the company's concrete machinery business

group integration to improve the Valuation: after Carlyle became the owner and ran aground, XCMG group has been seeking new integration ideas. The senior management of the group and the senior management of NORINCO group have had a comprehensive exchange on XCMG group's asset restructuring, market development, complementary advantages, equity cooperation, equity incentives, etc. If weapons is successfully taken over by XCMG, it will realize the strong combination of XCMG's production and manufacturing advantages and weapons' technological research and development advantages. In addition, with the improvement of incentive mechanisms such as equity incentives, XCMG will usher in a bright future of rapid development with great strides

catalyst and risk factors: asset integration at the group and company level, including overseas acquisitions, is an important catalyst for the company's share price. The main risks faced by the company are the uncertainty of the price fluctuation of raw materials such as steel and the impact of macro-control, as well as the overcapacity in the main product market and the expansion of the product market of the additional issuance project. Driven by the continuous investment in infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail, the high-end product chain and industrial chain are important drivers of the company's high growth. We expect the compound growth rate of the company's net profit in the next three years to be 23.53%

valuation and investment suggestions: since April 16, 2010, the company's share price has fallen by 27.27%, and the static P/E ratio is only 17.5 times, which is significantly lower than the market average level. Oversold rebound may occur at any time. In addition to the group's integration expectations, we give the company a valuation level of 18 times PE, corresponding to the reasonable share price of EPS predicted in 2010 of 46.51 yuan, maintaining the company's buy investment rating

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